Amherst Town, Massachusetts 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

357
FXUS61 KBOX 042351
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
751 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather, seasonable temperatures, and moderate relative
humidity expected to continue through the week. Wildfire smoke
lingers into Tuesday, but may not be as noticeable. Our next
chance for rain may not materialize until next Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Haze from Canadian wildfire smoke.

* Another dry and cool night with increasing cloudiness towards
  sunrise.

A large high pressure system continues to sit over Ontario and
New England bringing continued dry conditions. Smoke from the
Canadian wildfires will continue to affect southern New
England`s air quality at least through tonight. Expecting
relative humidity to rise overnight and increase the cloud cover
as we move closer to daybreak. Overnight temperatures in the
low to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* Slightly cooler for eastern MA, RI, and Cape.

A cold front pushing south into southern New England from
Canada will lead to northeast flow Tuesday. Given the prolonged
onshore flow, expecting daytime temperatures to be a bit cooler
across the eastern half of our region... upper 70s to low 80s.
Interior southern New England will likely remain slightly above
normal... in the mid 80s or so.

There is a chance some of the wildfire smoke lingers through
Tuesday, but it may not be as noticeable with the cloudier
skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Dry conditions expected in most places with the exception of
  an isolated shower or thunderstorm in western MA Wed/Thu.

* Highs in 80s with local sea breezes each day. Trending closer
  to 90 by end of weekend.


Weak ridging with zonal flow aloft with surface high pressure
will owe to a mainly dry extended period. Model guidance shows a
weak disturbance or two moving through the flow Wednesday and
Thursday; however, marginal moisture and a weakly forced
environment will keep precipitation chances limited. Ensemble
guidance shows a weak signal for precipitation later Wednesday
and Thursday mainly across western MA. The environment will
favor more isolated showers, perhaps a storm given some marginal
instability around as well. High temperatures stay about
seasonable with highs in the low to mid 80s through Saturday.
Weak winds will lead to localized sea breezes each day which
will keep the coastal areas cooler. Temperature trend warmer
toward the end of the weekend as an upper ridge builds over the
region. Ensemble guidance shows highs leaning closer to mid 80s
to around 90.

Uncertainty increases into early next week as the ridge aloft
weakens. Flow transitions to more southwesterly, advecting in
higher amounts of moisture into the region. The main uncertainty
will be with respect to development of a tropical system
southeast of the Carolina coast. NHC currently shows a 30%
chance of cyclone formation with this disturbance. Not much
agreement or run to run consistency among deterministic
guidance, but some solutions have the system recurving NE later
in the weekend toward southern New England. This is VERY far out
in these discussed model runs. A lot can change. Take this as
little nudge to be aware that this is a possibility further out
in the extended forecast and stay tuned for future updates. For
the latest on the tropics, refer to the latest Tropical Weather
Outlooks issued by the NHC. If nothing else, it serves as a
reminder that we are in the midst of tropical cyclone season.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

00z Update...

Tonight...High confidence.

VFR. Smoke lingers through sunset. High clouds move in
overnight. Light and variable winds across the interior and
Islands; SE sea breeze for BOS and Cape terminals. Winds shift
more NE overnight but remain light.

Tuesday...High confidence.

VFR. E to NE winds at 10-15 kts. Minor visby reductions
possible due to smoke/haze.

Tuesday Night...High Confidence.

Mainly VFR. Chance some ptchy fog could develop over the South
Coast and Cape/Islands. NE winds 5-10 kts.

KBOS terminal...High confidence in TAF.

VFR. Lingering smoke may cause minor visby reductions early this
evening. Sea breeze kicks kicks out between 00-03z tonight.
Smoke concentrations decrease overnight into tomorrow, but will
likely linger around for Tuesday.

KBDL terminal...High confidence in TAF.

VFR/MVFR(Due to smoke). Winds flip SSW tonight then to the NE
towards day break tomorrow.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Tuesday...High confidence.

High pressure remains over the waters. A period of relatively
light winds and seas with good visibility continues.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday through Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft.

Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ002>004.
     Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for
     CTZ002>004.
MA...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MAZ002>024-
     026.
RI...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for RIZ001>008.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...McMinn/Mensch
NEAR TERM...McMinn
SHORT TERM...McMinn
LONG TERM...Mensch
AVIATION...McMinn/Mensch/KP
MARINE...McMinn